2.塞翁失馬

When the Old Man on the Frontier Lost His Mare

   On the frontier there was a man who was skilled in divination.  One day his mare, for an unknown reason, fled north into the domain of the Hu tribes.  On learning this, sympathetic people came to console him, but his father remarked, "Who says that this may not be a blessing?"

    Several months later, the mare returned, not alone but with a fine steed of the Hu breed.  Sympathizers again came to congratulate the owner of the new horse, but again his father observed, "Who says this won't be a misfortune?"

    Now that there was a fine steed in his stable, the son, fond of riding, mounted the new-comer.  During the ride he fell from the horse and broke his hip bone.  Sympathetic people again came to console him, but his father as usual passed the matter off with the same remark, "Who says this won't be a blessing?"

    A year went by.  The Hu tribes made inroads, crossing the frontier line.  The able-bodied took up arrows and bows to fight, and nine out of every ten of the frontier inhabitants were killed.  But the son, being crippled, had not gone to fight, so he and his father survived.

    Therefore, a blessing may turn out a misfortune and a misfortune, a blessing.  It is extremely difficult to tell, as things are so changeable.

Huainanzi

 

    塞上之人,有善術者,馬無故亡而入胡。人皆弔之,其父曰:「此何遽不能為福乎?」

    居數月,其馬將胡駿馬而歸。人皆賀之,其父曰:「此何遽不能為禍乎?」

    家富良馬,其子好騎,墮而折其髀。人皆弔之,其父曰:「此何遽不能為福乎?」

    居一年,胡人入塞,丁壯者引弦而戰,塞上之人,死者十九,此獨以跛之故,父子相保。

    故福之為禍,禍之為福,化不可極,深不可測也。

《淮南子•人間訓》